Bitcoin fell on 92% of stocks’ worst days since 2022: Sentora

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Bitcoin has fallen on 92% of the U.S. stock market’s worst days since 2022, according to Sentora research that has challenged the case for treating crypto as protection against equity selloffs.

Summary

Bitcoin fell on 92% of stocks’ worst days since 2022, while Ether declined on 95%.
Ether underperformed Bitcoin on 79% of the worst equity sessions in the recent sample.
U.S. trading hours accounted for 33% of Bitcoin’s price variation despite representing 17.1% of time.
Weekly exchange inflows reached $3.09 billion for Bitcoin and $1.10 billion for Ether, Sentora said.

Sentora’s Nov. 13 research compared Bitcoin and Ether returns with U.S. stock indices from May 2018 through November 2026. Its findings showed that both cryptocurrencies frequently lost ground when equities suffered their heaviest losses, even though their average relationship with stocks looked relatively moderate.

The firm examined the diversification claim following the Nov. 5 selloff. In the figures shared with its newsletter briefing, the S&P 500 lost 4.4%, and the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.4%, while Bitcoin dropped 5% and Ether declined 7.2% over the same window.

Bitcoin’s stock-market link grew stronger during selloffs

Across the full sample, Sentora identified 107 sessions in the S&P 500’s worst-performing 5%, each involving a loss of at least 1.74%. Bitcoin fell in 81% of those observations, while Ether declined in 79%.

On ordinary stock-market days, each cryptocurrency fell roughly 49% of the time. Calculated from the reported figures, the frequency of losses during severe equity declines was 32 percentage points higher for Bitcoin and 30 points higher for Ether.

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Restricting the analysis to 2022 onward produced the 92% loss frequency for Bitcoin and 95% for Ether. The published study used that period’s own worst-5% threshold, covering 61 observations, rather than simply applying the full-history cutoff.

Sentora’s average correlations told a less dramatic story. Over the entire period, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.29 and Ether’s was 0.31. Both readings were slightly negative in 2018–19 but reached roughly 0.50 in 2026.

The November selloff carried substantial losses for leveraged traders. As crypto.news previously reported, CoinGlass recorded 24-hour crypto liquidations of approximately $1.08 billion on Nov. 5, including $954.38 million in longs and $127.30 million in shorts.

Ether lost more ground than Bitcoin during equity stress

Within crypto, Sentora found that holding Bitcoin instead of Ether reduced the typical loss during the stock market’s worst sessions in the recent sample.

Since 2022, Ether underperformed Bitcoin on 79% of those days. Median dollar losses stood at 3.6% for Bitcoin and 5.6% for Ether, a difference of two percentage points based on the reported medians.

The firm compared the ETH/BTC exchange rate, which measures Ether’s value in Bitcoin terms. Its median return was negative 1.52% on the worst equity days, against positive 0.67% on the best, leaving a 2.19-percentage-point gap between the groups.

The pattern survived the removal of March 2020 from the analysis, according to Sentora. Bitcoin’s relative strength did not mean it avoided losses: both assets posted negative median dollar returns during the recent sample’s worst equity sessions.

U.S. trading hours accounted for disproportionate crypto moves

Sentora’s hourly analysis covered the period since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The firm defined its cash-session window as 10 a.m. through the actual stock-market close in New York, excluding the opening half-hour to use complete hourly observations.

Although this window represented 17.1% of observed hours, it accounted for 33% of Bitcoin’s price variation and 30% of Ether’s.

In a typical U.S. trading hour, Bitcoin’s average absolute move was 2.09 times its weekend-hour move. Ether’s equivalent ratio was 1.78. Removing the largest 1% of hourly moves barely changed either result, according to the research.

The study measured the timing of volatility, without establishing that stock trading caused the crypto moves.

Exchange inflows accompanied a decline in stablecoin supply

In its accompanying weekly briefing, Sentora reported $3.09 billion in net Bitcoin exchange inflows and $1.10 billion for Ether. The combined amount was $4.19 billion, calculated from the two reported totals.

The firm said exchange inflows generally leave more coins available to trade, although the transfers do not establish that holders sold them.

Stablecoin supply fell by $4.75 billion to $287.77 billion during the week, according to the same briefing, after declining every day for more than two weeks.

Read more: BitGo denies breach as Unocoin transfers used 2 client-held keys

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