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James Lavish: Bitcoin Price Target, $400K–$500K by Mid-2029
James Lavish told BMTV last month that he believes the bottom is in, and he says that cycle call still holds after hike odds spiked and tech stocks wobbled. He maps Bitcoin’s highs to the halving, the four-year election calendar, and the broader economic cycle, which in his framework still points to a mid-2029 peak. Looking at the power law, he says a one-standard-deviation move above the mean would be consistent with the $400,000 to $500,000 range, and that he “would be absolutely shocked” if Bitcoin were not in the $200,000 to $300,000 range by then. He is not treating short-term rate jitters as a reason to abandon that cycle work.
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Chapters:
00:00 Fiscal Dominance and the $2 Trillion Deficit
01:51 The Fed Balance Sheet Is Growing Again
03:07 Hot CPI and a Near-Certain December Hike
05:23 Bitcoin Trades on Short-Term Interest Rates
06:35 The Fed Can’t Print Oil or Fix Home Prices
08:34 When the Fed Called Uncle in 2018 and 2022
11:11 A December Hike and Possibly 50 Basis Points
12:47 Treasury’s Quasi-Twist and $13 Trillion to Refinance
15:08 Why Bitcoin and Gold Are Struggling This Cycle
17:33 JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Beats Stocks, Bonds, and Gold
19:42 From Career Risk to a Risk Not to Have Any
22:18 The Cycle Still Points to a Mid-2029 High
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.
This post James Lavish: Bitcoin Price Target, $400K–$500K by Mid-2029 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.